Inverness vs Greenock Morton: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Invernessvs
Greenock MortonThe model puts Inverness at 70%. The model leans toward Inverness. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Inverness.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Inverness have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Greenock Morton have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Inverness have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Inverness is priced at 1.3.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Inverness at 70%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Greenock Morton at 10%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Inverness. Inverness is priced at 1.3. The draw is priced at 4.45. Greenock Morton is priced at 8.9.
Inverness have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Greenock Morton have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Inverness have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Inverness are on 2 wins in a row. Greenock Morton have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 35% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Inverness or Greenock Morton?
Our model rates Inverness as the most likely outcome at 70% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Inverness vs Greenock Morton?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Inverness wins, 3 draws, 7 Greenock Morton wins.
League table
Scotland. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stenhousemuir | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11:2 | 19 |
| 2 |  Raith Rovers | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11:3 | 14 |
| 3 |  Partick Thistle | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5:2 | 12 |
| 4 |  Dunfermline Athletic | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6:4 | 12 |
| 5 |  Livingston | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Ayr United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7:8 | 8 |
| 7 |  Arbroath | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:9 | 8 |
| 8 | Inverness | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 9 |  Queen's Park | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3:11 | 4 |
| 10 | Greenock Morton | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 4:13 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.