Raith Rovers vs Livingston: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Raith Roversvs
LivingstonThe model puts Raith Rovers at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Raith Rovers.
- +The head-to-head record favours Raith Rovers (9-1-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Raith Rovers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Livingston have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Raith Rovers have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Raith Rovers is priced at 2.34.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Raith Rovers at 42%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Livingston at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Raith Rovers is priced at 2.34. The draw is priced at 3.08. Livingston is priced at 2.73.
Raith Rovers have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Livingston have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Raith Rovers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Livingston have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Raith Rovers or Livingston?
Our model rates Raith Rovers as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Raith Rovers vs Livingston?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Raith Rovers wins, 1 draws, 5 Livingston wins.
Odds movement
League table
Scotland. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stenhousemuir | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11:2 | 19 |
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11:3 | 14 |
| 3 |  Partick Thistle | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5:2 | 12 |
| 4 |  Dunfermline Athletic | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6:4 | 12 |
| 5 | Livingston | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Ayr United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7:8 | 8 |
| 7 |  Arbroath | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:9 | 8 |
| 8 |  Inverness | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 9 |  Queen's Park | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3:11 | 4 |
| 10 |  Greenock Morton | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 4:13 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.