Latvia vs Montenegro: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Latviavs
MontenegroThe model puts Montenegro at 52%. The model leans toward Montenegro. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Latvia (2-2-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Latvia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Montenegro have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Latvia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Montenegro is priced at 1.8.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 3 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Latvia at 21%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Montenegro at 52%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Montenegro. Latvia is priced at 4.74. The draw is priced at 3.48. Montenegro is priced at 1.8.
Latvia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Latvia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Montenegro have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Latvia or Montenegro?
Our model rates Montenegro as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Latvia vs Montenegro?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 2 Latvia wins, 2 draws, 0 Montenegro wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League C| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Finland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Albania | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Belarus | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 4 |  San Marino | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.