Toluca (Women) vs Tigres de la UANL (Women): Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Toluca (Women)vs
Tigres de la UANL (Women)The model puts Tigres de la UANL (Women) at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Toluca (Women) (11-2-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Toluca (Women) have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tigres de la UANL (Women) have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Toluca (Women) have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Tigres de la UANL (Women) is priced at 1.972.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Toluca (Women) at 33%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Tigres de la UANL (Women) at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Tigres de la UANL (Women). Toluca (Women) is priced at 3.01. The draw is priced at 3.7. Tigres de la UANL (Women) is priced at 1.972.
Toluca (Women) have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. Tigres de la UANL (Women) have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Toluca (Women) have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Tigres de la UANL (Women) have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Toluca (Women) or Tigres de la UANL (Women)?
Our model rates Tigres de la UANL (Women) as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Toluca (Women) vs Tigres de la UANL (Women)?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 11 Toluca (Women) wins, 2 draws, 2 Tigres de la UANL (Women) wins.
League table
Mexico. Liga MX. Women - Apertura| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monterrey (Women) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 33:9 | 21 |
| 2 | Tigres de la UANL (Women) | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21:6 | 18 |
| 3 | Toluca (Women) | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17:8 | 16 |
| 4 |  Juarez (Women) | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | 15 |
| 5 |  Leon (Women) | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15:10 | 12 |
| 6 |  Cruz Azul (Women) | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11:18 | 12 |
| 7 |  Santos Laguna (Women) | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 8 |  Queretaro (Women) | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 9:18 | 6 |
| 9 |  Atlante (Women) | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4:11 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.