Leon (Women) vs Juarez (Women): Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Leon (Women)vs
Juarez (Women)The model puts Leon (Women) at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Juarez (Women).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Leon (Women) have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Juarez (Women) have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Leon (Women) have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Leon (Women) is priced at 2.27.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Leon (Women) at 38%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Juarez (Women) at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Leon (Women) is priced at 2.27. The draw is priced at 3.52. Juarez (Women) is priced at 2.52.
Leon (Women) have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Juarez (Women) have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Leon (Women) have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Juarez (Women) have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Leon (Women) or Juarez (Women)?
Our model rates Leon (Women) as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Leon (Women) vs Juarez (Women)?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 13 meetings: 5 Leon (Women) wins, 2 draws, 6 Juarez (Women) wins.
League table
Mexico. Liga MX. Women - Apertura| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monterrey (Women) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 33:9 | 21 |
| 2 |  Tigres de la UANL (Women) | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Toluca (Women) | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17:8 | 16 |
| 4 | Juarez (Women) | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | 15 |
| 5 | Leon (Women) | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15:10 | 12 |
| 6 |  Cruz Azul (Women) | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11:18 | 12 |
| 7 |  Santos Laguna (Women) | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 8 |  Queretaro (Women) | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 9:18 | 6 |
| 9 |  Atlante (Women) | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4:11 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.