Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs Shurtan Guzar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Pakhtakor Tashkent IIvs
Shurtan GuzarThe model puts Shurtan Guzar at 61%. The model leans toward Shurtan Guzar. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Pakhtakor Tashkent II.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Pakhtakor Tashkent II have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Shurtan Guzar have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pakhtakor Tashkent II have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Shurtan Guzar is priced at 1.42.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Pakhtakor Tashkent II at 19%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Shurtan Guzar at 61%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Shurtan Guzar. Pakhtakor Tashkent II is priced at 5.98. The draw is priced at 4.2. Shurtan Guzar is priced at 1.42.
Pakhtakor Tashkent II have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Pakhtakor Tashkent II have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Shurtan Guzar have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Pakhtakor Tashkent II or Shurtan Guzar?
Our model rates Shurtan Guzar as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs Shurtan Guzar?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Pakhtakor Tashkent II wins, 0 draws, 0 Shurtan Guzar wins.
League table
Uzbekistan. Pro League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Aral | 19 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 37:11 | 46 |
| 2 |  Metallurg Bekabad | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 46:16 | 40 |
| 3 | Shurtan Guzar | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 31:19 | 39 |
| 4 |  Fergana State University | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 34:26 | 36 |
| 5 |  Kattakurgan | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 24:17 | 33 |
| 6 |  Lochin | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 26:20 | 32 |
| 7 |  Olimpik MobiUZ | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 34:20 | 31 |
| 8 |  Gazalkent | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 32:22 | 29 |
| 9 |  Jayxun | 20 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 22:25 | 24 |
| 10 |  Yaypan | 19 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 21:32 | 22 |
| 11 |  Respublika FA | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 22:29 | 19 |
| 12 |  Buxdu | 19 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 15:45 | 10 |
| 13 | Pakhtakor Tashkent II | 19 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 13:42 | 10 |
| 14 |  Terdu | 19 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 11:44 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.