ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
ADO Den Haagvs
PSV EindhovenThe model puts PSV Eindhoven at 73%. The model leans toward PSV Eindhoven. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours PSV Eindhoven.
- −The head-to-head record favours ADO Den Haag (11-4-0).
- +PSV Eindhoven score more per game (1.0 at home vs 3.0 away).
- +PSV Eindhoven creates more chances (13 vs 19 shots per game).
- +ADO Den Haag are dealing with notable absentees.
- −PSV Eindhoven are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- ADO Den Haag have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings.
- ADO Den Haag will be without Reischl, Барань, Hokke.
- PSV Eindhoven will be without Nagalo, Ouaissa, Wanner, Lammers S., Pepi R., Plea, Sildillia, Schouten J..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 4 |
| 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts ADO Den Haag at 14%. The model puts the draw at 13%. The model puts PSV Eindhoven at 73%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward PSV Eindhoven. ADO Den Haag is priced at 8.9. The draw is priced at 6.15. PSV Eindhoven is priced at 1.285.
ADO Den Haag have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
ADO Den Haag have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. PSV Eindhoven have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
ADO Den Haag average 1 goals per game this season. ADO Den Haag average 58% possession. PSV Eindhoven average 3 goals per game this season. PSV Eindhoven average 58% possession.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 69% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, ADO Den Haag or PSV Eindhoven?
Our model rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 73% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 11 ADO Den Haag wins, 4 draws, 0 PSV Eindhoven wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.