Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sparta Rotterdamvs
Willem IIThe model puts Sparta Rotterdam at 61%. The model leans toward Sparta Rotterdam. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Willem II (4-0-11).
- +Sparta Rotterdam creates more chances (14 vs 10 shots per game).
- +Sparta Rotterdam controls more of the ball (50% vs 34%).
- −Sparta Rotterdam are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Willem II are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sparta Rotterdam have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Willem II have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sparta Rotterdam will be without Mito, van Bergen.
- Willem II will be without Boogaard, Culum, Van der Steen, Didillon, Lachkar, Hoogma.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 18 | 11 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sparta Rotterdam at 61%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Willem II at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Sparta Rotterdam. Sparta Rotterdam is priced at 1.55. The draw is priced at 4.48. Willem II is priced at 5.35.
Sparta Rotterdam have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Willem II have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings.
Sparta Rotterdam have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Willem II have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sparta Rotterdam average 1 goals per game this season. Sparta Rotterdam average 50% possession. Willem II average 1 goals per game this season. Willem II average 34% possession.
The model gives 36% for both teams to score. The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sparta Rotterdam or Willem II?
Our model rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Sparta Rotterdam wins, 0 draws, 11 Willem II wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.