Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cambuurvs
AZ AlkmaarThe model puts AZ Alkmaar at 64%. The model leans toward AZ Alkmaar. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours AZ Alkmaar.
- −The head-to-head record favours Cambuur (11-3-0).
- +AZ Alkmaar creates more chances (12 vs 19 shots per game).
- +AZ Alkmaar controls more of the ball (41% vs 59%).
- +Cambuur are dealing with notable absentees.
- −AZ Alkmaar are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Cambuur have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cambuur have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cambuur will be without Amofa, Asselman, Visser.
- AZ Alkmaar will be without Resink, Smith, Hornkamp J..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Cambuur at 18%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts AZ Alkmaar at 64%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward AZ Alkmaar. Cambuur is priced at 6.15. The draw is priced at 4.74. AZ Alkmaar is priced at 1.47.
Cambuur have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cambuur have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. AZ Alkmaar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Cambuur average 2 goals per game this season. Cambuur average 41% possession. AZ Alkmaar average 2 goals per game this season. AZ Alkmaar average 59% possession.
The model gives 59% for both teams to score. The model gives 69% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cambuur or AZ Alkmaar?
Our model rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 14 meetings: 11 Cambuur wins, 3 draws, 0 AZ Alkmaar wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.