Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Freiburg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bayer 04 Leverkusenvs
FreiburgThe model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 53%. The model leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
- −The head-to-head record favours Freiburg (3-5-7).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Freiburg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.685.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 53%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Freiburg at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.685. The draw is priced at 4.26. Freiburg is priced at 4.44.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Freiburg have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Freiburg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bayer 04 Leverkusen or Freiburg?
Our model rates Bayer 04 Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Freiburg?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins, 5 draws, 7 Freiburg wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14:4 | 13 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11:4 | 13 |
| 3 |  Bayern Munich | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:4 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:8 | 10 |
| 5 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15:5 | 9 |
| 6 |  Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13:8 | 8 |
| 7 |  Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 8 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13:10 | 7 |
| 9 |  Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:8 | 7 |
| 10 |  1. Koln | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:10 | 7 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 12 |  Hamburger | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5:15 | 6 |
| 13 |  Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | 5 |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9:16 | 5 |
| 15 |  Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3:7 | 4 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:17 | 4 |
| 17 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9:13 | 3 |
| 18 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7:18 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.