Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bayern Munichvs
RasenBallsport LeipzigThe model puts Bayern Munich at 79%. The model leans toward Bayern Munich. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Bayern Munich (10-3-2).
- +Recent form favours Bayern Munich.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Bayern Munich have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- RasenBallsport Leipzig have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bayern Munich have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bayern Munich is priced at 1.22.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 18 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 14 | 5 | ||||
| 4 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bayern Munich at 79%. The model puts the draw at 12%. The model puts RasenBallsport Leipzig at 8%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Bayern Munich. Bayern Munich is priced at 1.22. The draw is priced at 7.1. RasenBallsport Leipzig is priced at 10.5.
Bayern Munich have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. RasenBallsport Leipzig have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Bayern Munich have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. RasenBallsport Leipzig have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 27% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bayern Munich or RasenBallsport Leipzig?
Our model rates Bayern Munich as the most likely outcome at 79% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 Bayern Munich wins, 3 draws, 2 RasenBallsport Leipzig wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14:4 | 13 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11:4 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern Munich | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:4 | 11 |
| 4 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:8 | 10 |
| 5 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15:5 | 9 |
| 6 |  Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13:8 | 8 |
| 7 |  Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 8 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13:10 | 7 |
| 9 |  Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:8 | 7 |
| 10 |  1. Koln | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:10 | 7 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 12 |  Hamburger | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5:15 | 6 |
| 13 |  Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | 5 |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9:16 | 5 |
| 15 |  Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3:7 | 4 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:17 | 4 |
| 17 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9:13 | 3 |
| 18 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7:18 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.