Schalke 04 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Schalke 04vs
1. FSV Mainz 05The model puts 1. FSV Mainz 05 at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Schalke 04.
- +The head-to-head record favours 1. FSV Mainz 05 (3-3-9).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Schalke 04 have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Schalke 04 have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 is priced at 2.355.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Schalke 04 at 35%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts 1. FSV Mainz 05 at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Schalke 04 is priced at 2.875. The draw is priced at 3.56. 1. FSV Mainz 05 is priced at 2.355.
Schalke 04 have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. 1. FSV Mainz 05 have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Schalke 04 have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Schalke 04 are on 5 wins in a row. 1. FSV Mainz 05 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Schalke 04 or 1. FSV Mainz 05?
Our model rates 1. FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Schalke 04 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Schalke 04 wins, 3 draws, 9 1. FSV Mainz 05 wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14:4 | 13 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11:4 | 13 |
| 3 |  Bayern Munich | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:4 | 11 |
| 4 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:8 | 10 |
| 5 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15:5 | 9 |
| 6 |  Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13:8 | 8 |
| 7 |  Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 8 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13:10 | 7 |
| 9 |  Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:8 | 7 |
| 10 |  1. Koln | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:10 | 7 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 12 |  Hamburger | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5:15 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | 5 |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9:16 | 5 |
| 15 |  Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3:7 | 4 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:17 | 4 |
| 17 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9:13 | 3 |
| 18 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7:18 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.