AD Ceuta vs Real Sociedad II: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AD Ceutavs
Real Sociedad IIThe model puts AD Ceuta at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- AD Ceuta have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad II have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- AD Ceuta is priced at 2.255.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts AD Ceuta at 43%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Real Sociedad II at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. AD Ceuta is priced at 2.255. The draw is priced at 3.66. Real Sociedad II is priced at 2.97.
AD Ceuta have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
AD Ceuta have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Real Sociedad II have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AD Ceuta or Real Sociedad II?
Our model rates AD Ceuta as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AD Ceuta vs Real Sociedad II?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 AD Ceuta wins, 1 draws, 0 Real Sociedad II wins.
League table
Spain. Segunda Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Castellon | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12:2 | 16 |
| 2 |  Eibar | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12:4 | 15 |
| 3 |  Mallorca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8:2 | 13 |
| 4 |  UD Almeria | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10:4 | 12 |
| 5 |  Burgos | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 6 |  Sabadell | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 7 |  Leganes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6:5 | 11 |
| 8 |  Girona | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:8 | 10 |
| 9 |  Sporting de Gijon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5:4 | 10 |
| 10 |  Las Palmas | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:8 | 10 |
| 11 |  Tenerife | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7:8 | 10 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8:7 | 8 |
| 13 |  Real Oviedo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:4 | 8 |
| 14 |  Granada | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 8 |
| 15 |  Celta Fortuna | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:10 | 7 |
| 16 |  Cordoba | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9:13 | 6 |
| 17 |  Eldense | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4:8 | 5 |
| 18 |  Real Valladolid | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3:8 | 5 |
| 19 |  Cadiz | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 20 |  Andorra Andorra la Vella | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 9:13 | 3 |
| 21 |  Albacete Balompie | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4:10 | 1 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3:16 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.