Troyes AC vs RC Lens: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Troyes ACvs
RC LensThe model puts RC Lens at 55%. The model leans toward RC Lens. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours RC Lens.
- +The head-to-head record favours RC Lens (3-3-9).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Troyes AC have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- RC Lens have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Troyes AC have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- RC Lens is priced at 1.8.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Troyes AC at 22%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts RC Lens at 55%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward RC Lens. Troyes AC is priced at 4.14. The draw is priced at 3.88. RC Lens is priced at 1.8.
Troyes AC have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. RC Lens have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Troyes AC have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. RC Lens have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Troyes AC average 1 goals per game this season. Troyes AC average 43% possession. RC Lens average 2 goals per game this season. RC Lens average 48% possession.
The model gives 54% for both teams to score. The model gives 54% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Troyes AC or RC Lens?
Our model rates RC Lens as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Troyes AC vs RC Lens?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Troyes AC wins, 3 draws, 9 RC Lens wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Monaco | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Lille OSC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:4 | 13 |
| 3 |  Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12:10 | 13 |
| 4 |  Lyon | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:4 | 11 |
| 5 |  Paris | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:4 | 11 |
| 6 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:8 | 11 |
| 7 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12:9 | 8 |
| 8 |  Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6:6 | 8 |
| 9 |  Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | 8 |
| 10 | RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11:10 | 7 |
| 11 |  Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11:12 | 7 |
| 12 |  Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:10 | 7 |
| 13 |  Olympique de Marseille | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9:8 | 6 |
| 14 |  Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10:12 | 6 |
| 15 |  Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 6 |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:16 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes AC | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:13 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4:8 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.