Paris vs Stade Rennais: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Parisvs
Stade RennaisThe model puts Paris at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Paris are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Paris have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Stade Rennais have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paris have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Paris will be without Chergui, Sangui, Ikone, Marchetti.
- Paris is priced at 2.184.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Paris at 43%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Stade Rennais at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Paris. Paris is priced at 2.184. The draw is priced at 3.4. Stade Rennais is priced at 3.3.
Paris have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Paris have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Stade Rennais have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Paris average 2 goals per game this season. Paris average 51% possession. Stade Rennais average 1 goals per game this season. Stade Rennais average 56% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Paris or Stade Rennais?
Our model rates Paris as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Paris vs Stade Rennais?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 2 Paris wins, 0 draws, 0 Stade Rennais wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Paris
- 1Trapp K.
- 6Otavio
- 7Pagis
- 9Sinayoko
- 10Кеббаль
- 14Traore Ham.
- 15Koleosho
- 17Camara
- 20Lopez M.
- 33Lees-Melou
- 42Coppola
- Chergui (Questionable)
- Sangui (Missing Player)
- Ikone (Missing Player)
- Marchetti (Questionable)
Stade Rennais
- 4Cresswell
- 9Lepaul
- 10Blas Lu.
- 11Al Tamari
- 14Reynolds B.
- 18Nagida
- 21Rongier Va.
- 24Rouault
- 28Thomasson
- 30Samba B.
- 45Camara
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Monaco | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Lille OSC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 3 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14:9 | 14 |
| 4 | Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12:10 | 13 |
| 5 |  Lyon | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:4 | 11 |
| 7 |  RC Lens | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14:11 | 10 |
| 8 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | 9 |
| 9 |  Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12:11 | 9 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6:6 | 8 |
| 11 |  Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | 8 |
| 12 |  Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12:15 | 7 |
| 13 |  Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:10 | 7 |
| 14 |  Olympique de Marseille | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9:8 | 6 |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10:15 | 6 |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:16 | 6 |
| 17 |  Troyes AC | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5:16 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4:8 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.