Le Havre vs Auxerre: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Le Havrevs
AuxerreThe model puts Le Havre at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Auxerre score more per game (0.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −Recent form favours Auxerre.
- +The head-to-head record favours Le Havre (7-6-2).
- +Le Havre creates more chances (16 vs 10 shots per game).
- −Le Havre are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Auxerre are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Le Havre have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Auxerre have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Le Havre have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Le Havre will be without Fofana, Zagadou, Jelert, Mambimbi, Mpasi, Pembele, Seko A., Toure Ab..
- Auxerre will be without Labeau Lascary, Mandengue, Akpa, Diousse, Okoh, Senaya, Siwe, Fofana.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25 | 15 | 5 | |||
| 1 | 20 | 12 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 8 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Le Havre at 43%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Auxerre at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Le Havre is priced at 2.34. The draw is priced at 3.38. Auxerre is priced at 3.03.
Le Havre have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Auxerre have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Le Havre have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Auxerre have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Le Havre average 0 goals per game this season. Le Havre average 51% possession. Auxerre average 1 goals per game this season. Auxerre average 42% possession.
The model gives 25% for both teams to score. The model gives 17% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Le Havre or Auxerre?
Our model rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Auxerre?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Le Havre wins, 6 draws, 2 Auxerre wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Le Havre
- 5Touba
- 6Mwanga
- 7Richardson
- 9Maja J.
- 14Ndiaye
- 20Ouziad
- 25Samatta
- 26Ebonog
- 30Nakamura
- 93Gallon
- 97N'Diaye
- Fofana (Questionable)
- Zagadou (Missing Player)
- Jelert (Missing Player)
- Mambimbi (Missing Player)
- Mpasi (Missing Player)
- Pembele (Missing Player)
- Seko A. (Missing Player)
- Toure Ab. (Missing Player)
Auxerre
- 4Tuanzebe
- 5Danois
- 9Archer C.
- 10Namaso
- 15Makosso
- 20Diomande S.
- 22Oppegard F.
- 23Diop
- 27Xi
- 46Piedfort
- 77Zossou
- Labeau Lascary (Missing Player)
- Mandengue (Questionable)
- Akpa (Questionable)
- Diousse (Missing Player)
- Okoh (Missing Player)
- Senaya (Questionable)
- Siwe (Questionable)
- Fofana (Missing Player)
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Monaco | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Lille OSC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 3 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14:9 | 14 |
| 4 |  Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12:10 | 13 |
| 5 |  Lyon | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:4 | 11 |
| 6 |  Paris | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:4 | 11 |
| 7 |  RC Lens | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14:11 | 10 |
| 8 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | 9 |
| 9 |  Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12:11 | 9 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6:6 | 8 |
| 11 |  Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | 8 |
| 12 |  Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12:15 | 7 |
| 13 |  Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:10 | 7 |
| 14 |  Olympique de Marseille | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9:8 | 6 |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10:15 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:16 | 6 |
| 17 |  Troyes AC | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5:16 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4:8 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.