Eibar vs Las Palmas: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Eibarvs
Las PalmasThe model puts Eibar at 49%. The model leans toward Eibar. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Eibar.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Eibar have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Las Palmas have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Eibar have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Eibar is priced at 2.04.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Eibar at 49%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Las Palmas at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Eibar. Eibar is priced at 2.04. The draw is priced at 3.125. Las Palmas is priced at 4.12.
Eibar have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Las Palmas have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Eibar have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Eibar are on 5 wins in a row. Las Palmas have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Eibar or Las Palmas?
Our model rates Eibar as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Eibar vs Las Palmas?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Eibar wins, 2 draws, 6 Las Palmas wins.
League table
Spain. Segunda Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Castellon | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12:2 | 16 |
| 2 | Eibar | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12:4 | 15 |
| 3 |  Mallorca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8:2 | 13 |
| 4 |  UD Almeria | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10:4 | 12 |
| 5 |  Burgos | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 6 |  Sabadell | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 7 |  Leganes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6:5 | 11 |
| 8 |  Girona | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:8 | 10 |
| 9 |  Sporting de Gijon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5:4 | 10 |
| 10 | Las Palmas | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:8 | 10 |
| 11 |  Tenerife | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7:8 | 10 |
| 12 |  Real Sociedad II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8:7 | 8 |
| 13 |  Real Oviedo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:4 | 8 |
| 14 |  Granada | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 8 |
| 15 |  Celta Fortuna | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:10 | 7 |
| 16 |  Cordoba | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9:13 | 6 |
| 17 |  Eldense | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4:8 | 5 |
| 18 |  Real Valladolid | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3:8 | 5 |
| 19 |  Cadiz | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 20 |  Andorra Andorra la Vella | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 9:13 | 3 |
| 21 |  Albacete Balompie | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4:10 | 1 |
| 22 |  AD Ceuta | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3:16 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.