Al Sadd vs Al-Hilal Riyadh: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Al Saddvs
Al-Hilal RiyadhThe model puts Al-Hilal Riyadh at 60%. The model leans toward Al-Hilal Riyadh. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Al Sadd.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Al Sadd have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al-Hilal Riyadh have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al Sadd have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Al-Hilal Riyadh is priced at 1.59.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Al Sadd at 19%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Al-Hilal Riyadh at 60%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Al-Hilal Riyadh. Al Sadd is priced at 4.88. The draw is priced at 4.54. Al-Hilal Riyadh is priced at 1.59.
Al Sadd have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Al-Hilal Riyadh have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Al Sadd have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Al-Hilal Riyadh have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Al Sadd or Al-Hilal Riyadh?
Our model rates Al-Hilal Riyadh as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Al Sadd vs Al-Hilal Riyadh?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Al Sadd wins, 4 draws, 5 Al-Hilal Riyadh wins.
Odds movement
League table
AFC Champions League Elite - League stage| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima Antlers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:1 | 3 |
| 2 |  Gamba Osaka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Shanghai Port | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:4 | 3 |
| 4 |  Beijing Guoan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Vissel Kobe | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 6 |  Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 7 |  Daejeon Hana Citizen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 |  Buriram United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 |  Darul Takzim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 10 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 11 |  Port | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 12 |  Kyoto Sanga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 13 |  Ratchaburi | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4:6 | 0 |
| 14 |  Pohang Steelers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 15 |  Hanoi Police | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 16 |  Newcastle Jets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.