Santos Laguna vs Pachuca: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Santos Lagunavs
PachucaThe model puts Pachuca at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Santos Laguna.
- −The head-to-head record favours Santos Laguna (9-3-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Santos Laguna have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pachuca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Santos Laguna have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Pachuca is priced at 2.14.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Santos Laguna at 36%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Pachuca at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Pachuca. Santos Laguna is priced at 3.04. The draw is priced at 3.52. Pachuca is priced at 2.14.
Santos Laguna have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Pachuca have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Santos Laguna have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Pachuca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Santos Laguna or Pachuca?
Our model rates Pachuca as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Santos Laguna vs Pachuca?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Santos Laguna wins, 3 draws, 3 Pachuca wins.
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Toluca | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:6 | 19 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17:8 | 18 |
| 3 |  Club America | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:8 | 17 |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 16:15 | 15 |
| 5 |  Puebla | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11:11 | 14 |
| 6 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:15 | 14 |
| 7 |  Monterrey | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14:10 | 13 |
| 8 |  Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 9 |  Leon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:9 | 13 |
| 10 |  Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:8 | 13 |
| 11 |  Pumas UNAM | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 12 |
| 12 | Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Atletico San Luis | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11:16 | 9 |
| 14 |  Atlante | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Club Necaxa | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10:16 | 8 |
| 16 |  Tigres de la UANL | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9:13 | 7 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6:13 | 4 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 6:23 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.