Club Necaxa vs Club America: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Club Necaxavs
Club AmericaThe model puts Club America at 49%. The model leans toward Club America. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Club Necaxa (7-6-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Club Necaxa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club America have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club Necaxa have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Club America is priced at 1.81.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Club Necaxa at 27%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Club America at 49%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Club America. Club Necaxa is priced at 3.87. The draw is priced at 3.72. Club America is priced at 1.81.
Club Necaxa have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Club America have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Club Necaxa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Club America have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Club Necaxa or Club America?
Our model rates Club America as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Club Necaxa vs Club America?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Club Necaxa wins, 6 draws, 2 Club America wins.
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Toluca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20:9 | 19 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17:8 | 18 |
| 3 | Club America | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:8 | 17 |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 16:15 | 15 |
| 5 |  Queretaro | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:8 | 14 |
| 6 |  Tijuana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12:10 | 14 |
| 7 |  Leon | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12:10 | 14 |
| 8 |  Puebla | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11:11 | 14 |
| 9 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:15 | 14 |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14:10 | 13 |
| 11 |  Pachuca | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15:10 | 12 |
| 12 |  Pumas UNAM | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 12 |
| 13 |  Atletico San Luis | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11:16 | 9 |
| 14 |  Atlante | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:13 | 8 |
| 15 | Club Necaxa | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10:16 | 8 |
| 16 |  Tigres de la UANL | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9:13 | 7 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 9:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 6:23 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.