Asian Games

Iran U23 vs North Korea U23: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Iran U23vs

North Korea U23

Our predictionIran U23 to win

Model score: High · 71/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Iran U23 at 55%. The model leans toward Iran U23. Confidence: high.

Win probabilities

1 · Iran U2355%

Draw26%

2 · North Korea U2319%

1 · Iran U23Draw2 · North Korea U23

Full team comparison →

Team strength rating

Iran U23

North Korea U23

Recent form

Iran U23DWLDD

North Korea U23DLWDD

Most likely scorelines

1-013.2%

2-012.3%

1-110.3%

2-19.6%

3-07.6%

0-07.1%

Expected goals

1.86Iran U23

0.78North Korea U23

Over 2.5 goals49%

Both teams to score46%

Match DNA

Iran U23 North Korea U23

Key points

Iran U23 have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
North Korea U23 have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Iran U23 have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Iran U23 is priced at 1.65.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Iran U23 win1.65Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	6	2
1	13	10	4	1
2	12	10	4
3	8	6	2
4	4	3	1
5	1	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Iran U231.65+0.4%

BTTSYes2.02+0.3%

1X2North Korea U234.82-0.2%

1X2Draw3.42-0.2%

BTTSNo1.69-0.3%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model puts Iran U23 at 55%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts North Korea U23 at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Iran U23. Iran U23 is priced at 1.65. The draw is priced at 3.42. North Korea U23 is priced at 4.815.

Iran U23 have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.

Iran U23 have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. North Korea U23 have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →