Inter Miami vs D.C. United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Inter Miamivs
D.C. UnitedThe model puts Inter Miami at 73%. The model leans toward Inter Miami. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Inter Miami.
- +Inter Miami score more per game (3.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Inter Miami creates more chances (19 vs 10 shots per game).
- +Inter Miami controls more of the ball (58% vs 36%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Inter Miami have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- D.C. United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Inter Miami have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Inter Miami is priced at 1.355.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Inter Miami at 73%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts D.C. United at 12%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-0.
The market leans toward Inter Miami. Inter Miami is priced at 1.355. The draw is priced at 5.7. D.C. United is priced at 7.1.
Inter Miami have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. D.C. United have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Inter Miami have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. D.C. United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Inter Miami average 3 goals per game this season. Inter Miami average 58% possession. D.C. United average 1 goals per game this season. D.C. United average 36% possession.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 75% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Inter Miami or D.C. United?
Our model rates Inter Miami as the most likely outcome at 73% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Inter Miami vs D.C. United?
A scoreline around 3-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 13 meetings: 5 Inter Miami wins, 3 draws, 5 D.C. United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 60:29 | 50 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 48:36 | 47 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 50:42 | 47 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 49:39 | 45 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 34:32 | 44 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 43:30 | 41 |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 35:35 | 38 |
| 8 |  Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 38:38 | 36 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 37:44 | 36 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 48:51 | 32 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 40:44 | 32 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 13 |  Austin | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35:47 | 31 |
| 14 |  Minnesota United | 27 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 40:49 | 29 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 18 | 3 | 32:65 | 21 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.