Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Seattle Soundersvs
Sporting Kansas CityThe model puts Seattle Sounders at 67%. The model leans toward Seattle Sounders. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Seattle Sounders score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Seattle Sounders creates more chances (15 vs 9 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Seattle Sounders controls more of the ball (50% vs 44%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Seattle Sounders have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Seattle Sounders is priced at 1.46.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Seattle Sounders at 67%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Sporting Kansas City at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Seattle Sounders. Seattle Sounders is priced at 1.46. The draw is priced at 4.84. Sporting Kansas City is priced at 6.15.
Seattle Sounders have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Sporting Kansas City have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Seattle Sounders have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Sporting Kansas City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Seattle Sounders average 2 goals per game this season. Seattle Sounders average 50% possession. Sporting Kansas City average 1 goals per game this season. Sporting Kansas City average 44% possession.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 61% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Seattle Sounders or Sporting Kansas City?
Our model rates Seattle Sounders as the most likely outcome at 67% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Seattle Sounders wins, 1 draws, 7 Sporting Kansas City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 56:23 | 49 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 34:30 | 44 |
| 3 |  St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 45:36 | 44 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 49:42 | 44 |
| 5 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 46:38 | 42 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 43:29 | 41 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 26 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 36:35 | 36 |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 34:42 | 33 |
| 9 |  Portland Timbers | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 47:48 | 32 |
| 10 |  San Diego | 26 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 44:44 | 31 |
| 11 |  Austin | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 32:44 | 30 |
| 12 |  Real Salt Lake | 25 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 37:42 | 29 |
| 13 | Seattle Sounders | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 28:33 | 29 |
| 14 |  Minnesota United | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 39:46 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 29:63 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.