Chicago Fire vs New York City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Chicago Firevs
New York CityThe model puts Chicago Fire at 58%. The model leans toward Chicago Fire. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Chicago Fire score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours Chicago Fire (9-4-2).
- +Chicago Fire creates more chances (16 vs 10 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Chicago Fire have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New York City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Chicago Fire is priced at 1.784.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Chicago Fire at 58%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts New York City at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Chicago Fire. Chicago Fire is priced at 1.784. The draw is priced at 4.06. New York City is priced at 4.06.
Chicago Fire have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. New York City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Chicago Fire have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. New York City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Chicago Fire average 2 goals per game this season. Chicago Fire average 52% possession. New York City average 1 goals per game this season. New York City average 54% possession.
The model gives 54% for both teams to score. The model gives 61% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Chicago Fire or New York City?
Our model rates Chicago Fire as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Chicago Fire vs New York City?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Chicago Fire wins, 4 draws, 2 New York City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 59:26 | 50 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 48:36 | 47 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 50:42 | 47 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 49:39 | 45 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 34:32 | 44 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 43:30 | 41 |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 35:35 | 38 |
| 8 |  Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 38:38 | 36 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 37:44 | 36 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 48:51 | 32 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 40:44 | 32 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 13 |  Austin | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35:47 | 31 |
| 14 |  Minnesota United | 27 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 40:49 | 29 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 18 | 3 | 32:65 | 21 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.