USA. MLS

New York Red Bulls vs San Diego: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

New York Red Bullsvs

San Diego

Our predictionSan Diego to win

Model score: Low · 16/100

Score hint: 1-2

The model puts San Diego at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−New York Red Bulls score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
+Recent form favours San Diego.
−New York Red Bulls creates more chances (15 vs 11 shots per game).
+San Diego controls more of the ball (52% vs 62%).

Win probabilities

1 · New York Red Bulls39%

Draw22%

2 · San Diego39%

1 · New York Red BullsDraw2 · San Diego

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

O/U 2.5Under 2.52.92+8.6%

BTTSNo2.99+7.6%

1X2New York Red Bulls2.60+2.5%

1X2San Diego2.46+0.2%

1X2Draw3.82-2.7%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Expected goals

1.61New York Red Bulls

1.46San Diego

Over 2.5 goals59%

Both teams to score62%

Most likely scorelines

1-110.9%

2-18.8%

1-28.0%

1-07.5%

0-16.7%

2-26.4%

Team strength rating

New York Red Bulls

San Diego

Recent form

New York Red BullsDDWWL

San DiegoWWWLD

Match DNA

New York Red Bulls San Diego

Key points

New York Red Bulls have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
San Diego have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
New York Red Bulls have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
San Diego is priced at 2.455.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2San Diego win2.46Fair

Double chanceSan Diego or draw—Info

Total goalsOver 2.51.38Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	7	5	2
1	7	11	8	4	1
2	6	9	6	3	1
3	3	5	3	2
4	1	2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts New York Red Bulls at 39%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts San Diego at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.

The market frames this as a close contest. New York Red Bulls is priced at 2.605. The draw is priced at 3.82. San Diego is priced at 2.455.

New York Red Bulls have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.

New York Red Bulls have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. San Diego have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. San Diego are on 3 wins in a row.

New York Red Bulls average 2 goals per game this season. New York Red Bulls average 52% possession. San Diego average 1 goals per game this season. San Diego average 62% possession.

The model gives 62% for both teams to score. The model gives 59% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, New York Red Bulls or San Diego?

Our model rates San Diego as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for New York Red Bulls vs San Diego?

A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 1 meetings: 1 New York Red Bulls wins, 0 draws, 0 San Diego wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

USA. MLS

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	15	7	5	60:29	50
2	St. Louis City	27	13	6	8	48:36	47
3	Dallas	27	13	6	8	50:42	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	8	6	49:39	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	9	5	34:32	44
6	Los Angeles	28	11	9	8	43:30	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	9	8	35:35	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	13	3	38:38	36
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	9	10	9	37:44	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	13	5	48:51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	13	5	40:44	32
12	San Diego	27	8	11	8	47:47	32
13	Austin	27	7	10	10	35:47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	12	8	40:49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	18	3	32:65	21

Promotion - USA. MLS (Play-off: Round of 16) Promotion - USA. MLS (Play-off: Round of 32)

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.