USA. MLS

Atlanta United vs Cincinnati: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Atlanta Unitedvs

Cincinnati

Our predictionCincinnati to win

Model score: Low · 32/100

Score hint: 1-2

The model puts Cincinnati at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Cincinnati score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
+Recent form favours Cincinnati.
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
−Atlanta United controls more of the ball (54% vs 47%).

Win probabilities

1 · Atlanta United37%

Draw23%

2 · Cincinnati40%

1 · Atlanta UnitedDraw2 · Cincinnati

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

O/U 2.5Under 2.52.88+8.3%

BTTSNo2.94+7.0%

1X2Cincinnati2.57+2.8%

1X2Draw3.86-1.1%

1X2Atlanta United2.46-1.8%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Expected goals

1.57Atlanta United

1.50Cincinnati

Over 2.5 goals59%

Both teams to score62%

Recent form

Atlanta UnitedDDLLD

CincinnatiDWDWD

Team strength rating

Atlanta United

Cincinnati

Most likely scorelines

1-110.9%

2-18.6%

1-28.2%

1-07.3%

0-17.0%

2-26.4%

Match DNA

Atlanta United Cincinnati

Key points

Atlanta United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Cincinnati have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Atlanta United have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
Cincinnati is priced at 2.57.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Cincinnati win2.57Fair (+2.8%)

Double chanceCincinnati or draw—Info

Total goalsOver 2.51.39Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	7	5	3
1	7	11	8	4	2
2	6	9	6	3	1
3	3	4	3	2
4	1	2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Atlanta United at 37%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Cincinnati at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.

The market frames this as a close contest. Atlanta United is priced at 2.46. The draw is priced at 3.86. Cincinnati is priced at 2.57.

Atlanta United have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Cincinnati have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.

Atlanta United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Cincinnati have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

Atlanta United average 1 goals per game this season. Atlanta United average 54% possession. Cincinnati average 2 goals per game this season. Cincinnati average 47% possession.

The model gives 62% for both teams to score. The model gives 59% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Atlanta United or Cincinnati?

Our model rates Cincinnati as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Atlanta United vs Cincinnati?

A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 5 Atlanta United wins, 6 draws, 4 Cincinnati wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

USA. MLS

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	15	7	5	60:29	50
2	St. Louis City	27	13	6	8	48:36	47
3	Dallas	27	13	6	8	50:42	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	8	6	49:39	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	9	5	34:32	44
6	Los Angeles	28	11	9	8	43:30	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	9	8	35:35	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	13	3	38:38	36
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	9	10	9	37:44	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	13	5	48:51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	13	5	40:44	32
12	San Diego	27	8	11	8	47:47	32
13	Austin	27	7	10	10	35:47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	12	8	40:49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	18	3	32:65	21