Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Chicago Firevs
Vancouver WhitecapsThe model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Chicago Fire (7-3-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Chicago Fire have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 2.115.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Chicago Fire at 34%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 43%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Vancouver Whitecaps. Chicago Fire is priced at 3.064. The draw is priced at 3.94. Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 2.115.
Chicago Fire have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Vancouver Whitecaps have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Chicago Fire have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Vancouver Whitecaps have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Chicago Fire average 2 goals per game this season. Chicago Fire average 52% possession. Vancouver Whitecaps average 2 goals per game this season. Vancouver Whitecaps average 57% possession.
The model gives 72% for both teams to score. The model gives 73% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Chicago Fire or Vancouver Whitecaps?
Our model rates Vancouver Whitecaps as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 13 meetings: 7 Chicago Fire wins, 3 draws, 3 Vancouver Whitecaps wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Chicago Fire
- 1Brady
- 3Elliott J.
- 4Mbokazi
- 7Haile Selassie
- 9Kuijpers
- 11Zinckernagel
- 15Gutman A.
- 17Lod R.
- 22Пиньеда
- 24Dean
- 42Davilla
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 2Laborda Ma.
- 8Larraz
- 13Muller
- 14Caicedo
- 18Ocampo
- 24White B.
- 26Ngando
- 28Johnson
- 32Boehmer
- 33Blackmon
- 59Badwal
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 56:23 | 49 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 34:30 | 44 |
| 3 |  St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 45:36 | 44 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 49:42 | 44 |
| 5 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 46:38 | 42 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 43:29 | 41 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 26 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 36:35 | 36 |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 34:42 | 33 |
| 9 |  Portland Timbers | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 47:48 | 32 |
| 10 |  Seattle Sounders | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 30:33 | 32 |
| 11 |  San Diego | 26 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 44:44 | 31 |
| 12 |  Austin | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 32:44 | 30 |
| 13 |  Real Salt Lake | 26 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 37:44 | 29 |
| 14 |  Minnesota United | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 39:46 | 29 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 29:63 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.