USA. MLS

Minnesota United vs Houston Dynamo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Minnesota Unitedvs

Houston Dynamo

Our predictionMinnesota United to win

Model score: Medium · 36/100

Score hint: 2-1

The model puts Minnesota United at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Houston Dynamo score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
−Recent form favours Houston Dynamo.
+The head-to-head record favours Minnesota United (8-3-4).

Win probabilities

1 · Minnesota United44%

Draw24%

2 · Houston Dynamo32%

1 · Minnesota UnitedDraw2 · Houston Dynamo

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Houston Dynamo3.34+3.6%

O/U 2.5Over 2.51.70+1.5%

BTTSNo2.30+0.9%

BTTSYes1.55-0.9%

1X2Minnesota United2.10-1.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Minnesota UnitedLLLLL

Houston DynamoLDLWD

Expected goals

1.75Minnesota United

1.24Houston Dynamo

Over 2.5 goals58%

Both teams to score59%

Team strength rating

Minnesota United

Houston Dynamo

Most likely scorelines

1-110.9%

2-19.5%

1-08.8%

2-07.7%

1-26.8%

0-16.2%

Match DNA

Minnesota United Houston Dynamo

Key points

Minnesota United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Houston Dynamo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Minnesota United have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
Minnesota United is priced at 2.096.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Minnesota United win2.10Fair (-1.1%)

Double chanceMinnesota United or draw—Info

Total goalsOver 2.51.70Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	5	6	4	2
1	9	11	7	3
2	8	10	6	2
3	4	6	3	1
4	2	2	2
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Minnesota United at 44%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Houston Dynamo at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.

The market leans toward Minnesota United. Minnesota United is priced at 2.096. The draw is priced at 3.6. Houston Dynamo is priced at 3.34.

Minnesota United have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Houston Dynamo have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.

Minnesota United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Houston Dynamo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

Minnesota United average 1 goals per game this season. Minnesota United average 47% possession. Houston Dynamo average 2 goals per game this season. Houston Dynamo average 47% possession.

The model gives 59% for both teams to score. The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Minnesota United or Houston Dynamo?

Our model rates Minnesota United as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Minnesota United vs Houston Dynamo?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 8 Minnesota United wins, 3 draws, 4 Houston Dynamo wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

USA. MLS

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	15	7	5	60:29	50
2	St. Louis City	27	13	6	8	48:36	47
3	Dallas	27	13	6	8	50:42	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	8	6	49:39	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	9	5	34:32	44
6	Los Angeles	28	11	9	8	43:30	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	9	8	35:35	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	13	3	38:38	36
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	9	10	9	37:44	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	13	5	48:51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	13	5	40:44	32
12	San Diego	27	8	11	8	47:47	32
13	Austin	27	7	10	10	35:47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	12	8	40:49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	18	3	32:65	21

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Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.