Orlando City vs Columbus Crew: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Orlando Cityvs
Columbus CrewThe model puts Orlando City at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Columbus Crew controls more of the ball (48% vs 57%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Orlando City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Columbus Crew have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Orlando City have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Orlando City is priced at 2.085.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Orlando City at 45%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Columbus Crew at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Orlando City. Orlando City is priced at 2.085. The draw is priced at 3.92. Columbus Crew is priced at 3.144.
Orlando City have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Columbus Crew have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Orlando City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Columbus Crew have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Orlando City average 2 goals per game this season. Orlando City average 48% possession. Columbus Crew average 2 goals per game this season. Columbus Crew average 57% possession.
The model gives 71% for both teams to score. The model gives 74% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Orlando City or Columbus Crew?
Our model rates Orlando City as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Orlando City vs Columbus Crew?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Orlando City wins, 3 draws, 7 Columbus Crew wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 60:29 | 50 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 48:36 | 47 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 50:42 | 47 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 49:39 | 45 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 34:32 | 44 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 43:30 | 41 |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 35:35 | 38 |
| 8 |  Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 38:38 | 36 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 37:44 | 36 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 48:51 | 32 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 40:44 | 32 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 13 |  Austin | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35:47 | 31 |
| 14 |  Minnesota United | 27 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 40:49 | 29 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 18 | 3 | 32:65 | 21 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.