Austin vs Nashville: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Austinvs
NashvilleThe model puts Nashville at 50%. The model leans toward Nashville. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Austin.
- −Austin creates more chances (12 vs 10 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Austin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nashville have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Austin have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Nashville is priced at 1.87.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Austin at 25%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Nashville at 50%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Nashville. Austin is priced at 3.98. The draw is priced at 3.74. Nashville is priced at 1.87.
Austin have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Nashville have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Austin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Nashville have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Nashville are on 2 wins in a row.
Austin average 1 goals per game this season. Austin average 56% possession. Nashville average 1 goals per game this season. Nashville average 51% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Austin or Nashville?
Our model rates Nashville as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Austin vs Nashville?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Austin wins, 1 draws, 3 Nashville wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 60:29 | 50 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 48:36 | 47 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 50:42 | 47 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 49:39 | 45 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 34:32 | 44 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 43:30 | 41 |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 35:35 | 38 |
| 8 |  Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 38:38 | 36 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 37:44 | 36 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 48:51 | 32 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 40:44 | 32 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35:47 | 31 |
| 14 |  Minnesota United | 27 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 40:49 | 29 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 18 | 3 | 32:65 | 21 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.