Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sporting Kansas Cityvs
Portland TimbersThe model puts Sporting Kansas City at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Sporting Kansas City (8-5-2).
- −Portland Timbers creates more chances (11 vs 13 shots per game).
- −Portland Timbers controls more of the ball (42% vs 50%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sporting Kansas City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sporting Kansas City is priced at 2.46.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sporting Kansas City at 40%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Portland Timbers at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Sporting Kansas City is priced at 2.46. The draw is priced at 4. Portland Timbers is priced at 2.52.
Sporting Kansas City have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Portland Timbers have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sporting Kansas City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Portland Timbers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sporting Kansas City average 1 goals per game this season. Sporting Kansas City average 42% possession. Portland Timbers average 1 goals per game this season. Portland Timbers average 50% possession.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 41% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sporting Kansas City or Portland Timbers?
Our model rates Sporting Kansas City as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Sporting Kansas City wins, 5 draws, 2 Portland Timbers wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 60:29 | 50 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 48:36 | 47 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 50:42 | 47 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 49:39 | 45 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 34:32 | 44 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 43:30 | 41 |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 35:35 | 38 |
| 8 |  Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 38:38 | 36 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 37:44 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 48:51 | 32 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 40:44 | 32 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 13 |  Austin | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35:47 | 31 |
| 14 |  Minnesota United | 27 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 40:49 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 18 | 3 | 32:65 | 21 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.