Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Colorado Rapidsvs
San Jose EarthquakesThe model puts Colorado Rapids at 50%. The model leans toward Colorado Rapids. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours San Jose Earthquakes.
- +Colorado Rapids creates more chances (17 vs 11 shots per game).
- +Colorado Rapids controls more of the ball (58% vs 46%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Colorado Rapids have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Colorado Rapids is priced at 1.9.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Colorado Rapids at 50%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts San Jose Earthquakes at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Colorado Rapids. Colorado Rapids is priced at 1.9. The draw is priced at 3.82. San Jose Earthquakes is priced at 3.76.
Colorado Rapids have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. San Jose Earthquakes have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Colorado Rapids have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. San Jose Earthquakes have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Colorado Rapids average 2 goals per game this season. Colorado Rapids average 58% possession. San Jose Earthquakes average 2 goals per game this season. San Jose Earthquakes average 46% possession.
The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 74% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Colorado Rapids or San Jose Earthquakes?
Our model rates Colorado Rapids as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Colorado Rapids wins, 3 draws, 5 San Jose Earthquakes wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 60:29 | 50 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 48:36 | 47 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 50:42 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 49:39 | 45 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 34:32 | 44 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 43:30 | 41 |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 35:35 | 38 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 38:38 | 36 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 37:44 | 36 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 48:51 | 32 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 40:44 | 32 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 13 |  Austin | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35:47 | 31 |
| 14 |  Minnesota United | 27 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 40:49 | 29 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 18 | 3 | 32:65 | 21 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.