Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Philadelphia Unionvs
Real Salt LakeThe model puts Philadelphia Union at 67%. The model leans toward Philadelphia Union. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Philadelphia Union.
- −The head-to-head record favours Real Salt Lake (1-6-6).
- +Philadelphia Union creates more chances (17 vs 13 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Philadelphia Union have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Philadelphia Union is priced at 1.42.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 17 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Philadelphia Union at 67%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Real Salt Lake at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Philadelphia Union. Philadelphia Union is priced at 1.42. The draw is priced at 5. Real Salt Lake is priced at 6.55.
Philadelphia Union have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Real Salt Lake have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Philadelphia Union have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Philadelphia Union are on 5 wins in a row. Real Salt Lake have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Philadelphia Union average 1 goals per game this season. Philadelphia Union average 48% possession. Real Salt Lake average 1 goals per game this season. Real Salt Lake average 49% possession.
The model gives 35% for both teams to score. The model gives 43% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Philadelphia Union or Real Salt Lake?
Our model rates Philadelphia Union as the most likely outcome at 67% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 13 meetings: 1 Philadelphia Union wins, 6 draws, 6 Real Salt Lake wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 60:29 | 50 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 48:36 | 47 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 50:42 | 47 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 49:39 | 45 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 34:32 | 44 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 43:30 | 41 |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 35:35 | 38 |
| 8 |  Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 38:38 | 36 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 37:44 | 36 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 48:51 | 32 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 40:44 | 32 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 13 |  Austin | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35:47 | 31 |
| 14 |  Minnesota United | 27 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 40:49 | 29 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 18 | 3 | 32:65 | 21 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.