St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
St. Louis Cityvs
Los Angeles GalaxyThe model puts St. Louis City at 58%. The model leans toward St. Louis City. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Los Angeles Galaxy.
- +St. Louis City score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +St. Louis City creates more chances (17 vs 12 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head record favours Los Angeles Galaxy (2-4-4).
- +St. Louis City controls more of the ball (54% vs 48%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- St. Louis City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Louis City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- St. Louis City is priced at 1.632.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts St. Louis City at 58%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward St. Louis City. St. Louis City is priced at 1.632. The draw is priced at 4.54. Los Angeles Galaxy is priced at 4.54.
St. Louis City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Los Angeles Galaxy have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
St. Louis City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Los Angeles Galaxy have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
St. Louis City average 2 goals per game this season. St. Louis City average 54% possession. Los Angeles Galaxy average 1 goals per game this season. Los Angeles Galaxy average 48% possession.
The model gives 55% for both teams to score. The model gives 60% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, St. Louis City or Los Angeles Galaxy?
Our model rates St. Louis City as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 10 meetings: 2 St. Louis City wins, 4 draws, 4 Los Angeles Galaxy wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 60:29 | 50 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 48:36 | 47 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 50:42 | 47 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 49:39 | 45 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 34:32 | 44 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 43:30 | 41 |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 35:35 | 38 |
| 8 |  Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 38:38 | 36 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 37:44 | 36 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 48:51 | 32 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 40:44 | 32 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 13 |  Austin | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35:47 | 31 |
| 14 |  Minnesota United | 27 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 40:49 | 29 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 27 | 6 | 18 | 3 | 32:65 | 21 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.