Unione Venezia vs Napoli: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Unione Veneziavs
NapoliThe model puts Napoli at 58%. The model leans toward Napoli. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Napoli.
- +The head-to-head record favours Napoli (1-4-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Unione Venezia have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Napoli have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Unione Venezia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Napoli is priced at 1.7.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Unione Venezia at 20%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Napoli at 58%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Napoli. Unione Venezia is priced at 4.56. The draw is priced at 4.06. Napoli is priced at 1.7.
Unione Venezia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Napoli have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Unione Venezia have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Napoli have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Unione Venezia average 1 goals per game this season. Unione Venezia average 67% possession. Napoli average 2 goals per game this season. Napoli average 46% possession.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 54% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Unione Venezia or Napoli?
Our model rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Unione Venezia vs Napoli?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 8 meetings: 1 Unione Venezia wins, 4 draws, 3 Napoli wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14:3 | 13 |
| 2 |  Internazionale Milano | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15:8 | 13 |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 13 |
| 4 |  Cagliari Calcio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 12 |
| 5 |  Milan | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:4 | 11 |
| 6 |  Frosinone Calcio | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:4 | 10 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:4 | 10 |
| 8 |  Como | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:6 | 10 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 10 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9:9 | 7 |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5:7 | 6 |
| 12 |  Lecce | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5:10 | 6 |
| 13 |  Udinese Calcio | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:11 | 4 |
| 14 |  Torino | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 15 |  Parma | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 16 |  Monza 1912 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:12 | 4 |
| 17 |  Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6:12 | 4 |
| 18 |  Bologna 1909 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3:6 | 2 |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3:10 | 1 |
| 20 | Unione Venezia | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4:13 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.