Udinese Calcio vs Lecce: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Udinese Calciovs
LecceThe model puts Udinese Calcio at 48%. The model leans toward Udinese Calcio. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Lecce.
- −The head-to-head record favours Lecce (4-2-9).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Udinese Calcio have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lecce have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Udinese Calcio have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Udinese Calcio is priced at 1.875.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Udinese Calcio at 48%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Lecce at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Udinese Calcio. Udinese Calcio is priced at 1.875. The draw is priced at 3.56. Lecce is priced at 4.16.
Udinese Calcio have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Lecce have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Udinese Calcio have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Lecce have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Udinese Calcio average 1 goals per game this season. Udinese Calcio average 41% possession. Lecce average 1 goals per game this season. Lecce average 43% possession.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Udinese Calcio or Lecce?
Our model rates Udinese Calcio as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Udinese Calcio vs Lecce?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Udinese Calcio wins, 2 draws, 9 Lecce wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14:3 | 13 |
| 2 |  Internazionale Milano | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15:8 | 13 |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 13 |
| 4 |  Cagliari Calcio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 12 |
| 5 |  Milan | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:4 | 11 |
| 6 |  Frosinone Calcio | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:4 | 10 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:4 | 10 |
| 8 |  Como | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:6 | 10 |
| 9 |  Napoli | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 10 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9:9 | 7 |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5:7 | 6 |
| 12 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5:10 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese Calcio | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:11 | 4 |
| 14 |  Torino | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 15 |  Parma | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 16 |  Monza 1912 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:12 | 4 |
| 17 |  Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6:12 | 4 |
| 18 |  Bologna 1909 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3:6 | 2 |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3:10 | 1 |
| 20 |  Unione Venezia | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4:13 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.