Spain. Segunda Division

Leganes vs Castellon: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Leganesvs

Castellon

Our predictionCastellon to win

Model score: Low · 16/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Castellon at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Leganes.
−The head-to-head record favours Leganes (3-2-1).
+Leganes are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Leganes34%

Draw26%

2 · Castellon40%

1 · LeganesDraw2 · Castellon

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.17+4.6%

1X2Leganes3.14+3.8%

1X2Castellon2.27-1.7%

1X2Draw3.38-2.1%

BTTSYes1.61-4.6%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

LeganesLWLWD

CastellonLLDLW

Most likely scorelines

1-112.6%

0-19.8%

1-09.6%

1-28.2%

2-18.1%

0-07.5%

Team strength rating

Leganes

Castellon

Expected goals

1.28Leganes

1.31Castellon

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

Leganes Castellon

Key points

Leganes have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Castellon have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Leganes have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Leganes will be without Diawara A., Pena R., Tejero A., Franquesa E..
Castellon will be without Brignani.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Castellon win2.27Fair (-1.7%)

Double chanceCastellon or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	10	6	3
1	10	13	8	4	1
2	6	8	5	2
3	3	3	2
4		1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Leganes at 34%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Castellon at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market frames this as a close contest. Leganes is priced at 3.14. The draw is priced at 3.38. Castellon is priced at 2.275.

Leganes have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Castellon have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.

Leganes have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Castellon have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Leganes or Castellon?

Our model rates Castellon as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Leganes vs Castellon?

A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 3 Leganes wins, 2 draws, 1 Castellon wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchCamaraCastellon8.8

Leganes

Starting XI

2Marvel6.6
5Miquel I.6.0
6Aguilar6.4
8Kechta6.7
10Buurmeester6.2
11Garcia6.5
13Zidane L.8.1
17Gharbi5.8
19Soko7.4
20Atienza6.4
22Sancris6.7

Unavailable

Diawara A. (Missing Player)
Pena R. (Questionable)
Tejero A. (Missing Player)
Franquesa E. (Missing Player)

Castellon

Starting XI

2Juan Jose Nieto Zarzoso7.6
4Sienra7.5
5Jimenez Alb.7.7
8Barri D.7.3
9Camara8.8
13Matthys R.8.0
14Cordoba In.8.5
17Castillo6.5
18Santiago7.5
21de Frias A.M.6.7
22Mellot J.7.1

Unavailable

Brignani (Missing Player)

League table

Spain. Segunda Division

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Castellon	6	5	0	1	12:2	16
2	Eibar	6	5	1	0	12:4	15
3	Girona	7	4	2	1	14:8	13
4	Mallorca	6	4	1	1	8:2	13
5	UD Almeria	6	4	2	0	10:4	12
6	Sabadell	7	3	1	3	8:6	12
7	Burgos	6	3	1	2	10:7	11
8	Leganes	6	3	1	2	6:5	11
9	Tenerife	7	3	2	2	8:9	11
10	Sporting de Gijon	6	3	2	1	5:4	10
11	Las Palmas	6	3	2	1	8:8	10
12	Real Oviedo	6	2	2	2	5:4	8
13	Granada	7	2	3	2	10:11	8
14	Real Sociedad II	7	2	3	2	9:10	8
15	Celta Fortuna	7	2	3	2	8:11	8
16	Andorra Andorra la Vella	7	2	5	0	12:15	6
17	Cordoba	6	2	4	0	9:13	6
18	Eldense	6	1	3	2	4:8	5
19	Real Valladolid	6	1	3	2	3:8	5
20	Cadiz	7	0	3	4	7:10	4
21	AD Ceuta	7	1	5	1	6:17	4
22	Albacete Balompie	7	0	6	1	4:12	1