Fergana State University vs Buxdu: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fergana State Universityvs
BuxduThe model puts Fergana State University at 78%. The model leans toward Fergana State University. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Fergana State University have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Buxdu have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fergana State University is priced at 1.147.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 18 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 14 | 5 | ||||
| 4 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Fergana State University at 78%. The model puts the draw at 15%. The model puts Buxdu at 7%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Fergana State University. Fergana State University is priced at 1.147. The draw is priced at 5.8. Buxdu is priced at 12.7.
The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Fergana State University have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Fergana State University are on 2 wins in a row. Buxdu have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 27% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fergana State University or Buxdu?
Our model rates Fergana State University as the most likely outcome at 78% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fergana State University vs Buxdu?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Fergana State University wins, 1 draws, 0 Buxdu wins.
Odds movement
League table
Uzbekistan. Pro League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Aral | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 42:13 | 49 |
| 2 |  Shurtan Guzar | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 35:19 | 42 |
| 3 |  Metallurg Bekabad | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 46:16 | 40 |
| 4 | Fergana State University | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 34:26 | 36 |
| 5 |  Kattakurgan | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 24:17 | 33 |
| 6 |  Lochin | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 26:23 | 32 |
| 7 |  Olimpik MobiUZ | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 34:20 | 31 |
| 8 |  Gazalkent | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 32:22 | 29 |
| 9 |  Jayxun | 20 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 22:25 | 24 |
| 10 |  Yaypan | 20 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 23:37 | 22 |
| 11 |  Respublika FA | 19 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 25:29 | 22 |
| 12 | Buxdu | 19 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 15:45 | 10 |
| 13 |  Pakhtakor Tashkent II | 20 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 13:46 | 10 |
| 14 |  Terdu | 19 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 11:44 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.