Truro City vs Merthyr Town: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Truro Cityvs
Merthyr TownThe model puts Truro City at 48%. The model leans toward Truro City. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Merthyr Town (2-2-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Truro City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Merthyr Town have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Truro City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Truro City is priced at 1.85.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Truro City at 48%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Merthyr Town at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Truro City. Truro City is priced at 1.85. The draw is priced at 3.52. Merthyr Town is priced at 3.56.
Truro City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Merthyr Town have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Truro City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Merthyr Town have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Truro City or Merthyr Town?
Our model rates Truro City as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Truro City vs Merthyr Town?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 8 meetings: 2 Truro City wins, 2 draws, 4 Merthyr Town wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.