Mauritania vs Central African Republic: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Mauritaniavs
Central African RepublicThe model puts Mauritania at 52%. The model leans toward Mauritania. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Mauritania.
- −The head-to-head record favours Central African Republic (1-0-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Mauritania have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Central African Republic have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mauritania have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Mauritania is priced at 1.735.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Mauritania at 52%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Central African Republic at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Mauritania. Mauritania is priced at 1.735. The draw is priced at 3.48. Central African Republic is priced at 5.25.
Mauritania have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Central African Republic have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Mauritania have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Central African Republic have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Mauritania or Central African Republic?
Our model rates Mauritania as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Mauritania vs Central African Republic?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 1 Mauritania wins, 0 draws, 3 Central African Republic wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Lesotho | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Gabon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Niger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.