UD Songo vs Maxaquene: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
UD Songovs
MaxaqueneThe model puts UD Songo at 71%. The model leans toward UD Songo. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Maxaquene (3-0-12).
- +Recent form favours UD Songo.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- UD Songo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Maxaquene have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- UD Songo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- UD Songo is priced at 1.24.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts UD Songo at 71%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Maxaquene at 11%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward UD Songo. UD Songo is priced at 1.24. The draw is priced at 4.65. Maxaquene is priced at 11.5.
UD Songo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Maxaquene have won 12 of the head-to-head meetings.
UD Songo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Maxaquene have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 34% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, UD Songo or Maxaquene?
Our model rates UD Songo as the most likely outcome at 71% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for UD Songo vs Maxaquene?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 UD Songo wins, 0 draws, 12 Maxaquene wins.
Odds movement
League table
Mozambique Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Black Bulls | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 28:9 | 44 |
| 2 |  Costa do Sol | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 24:11 | 34 |
| 3 |  Clube Ferroviário da Beira | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 23:12 | 34 |
| 4 |  Ferroviario Lichinga | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 16:13 | 28 |
| 5 |  Clube Ferroviário de Nampula | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 19:21 | 28 |
| 6 | UD Songo | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 16:13 | 25 |
| 7 |  Ferroviario Maputo | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 13:11 | 23 |
| 8 |  Vilankulo | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 19:16 | 20 |
| 9 |  Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Velha | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 8:12 | 20 |
| 10 |  Baia de Pemba | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9:12 | 19 |
| 11 |  Liga Desportiva de Sofala | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 8:19 | 18 |
| 12 |  AD Pemba | 17 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 9:19 | 17 |
| 13 | Maxaquene | 17 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 8:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Chingale de Tete | 18 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 4:17 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.