Nurnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Nurnbergvs
VfL WolfsburgThe model puts Nurnberg at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Nurnberg score more per game (3.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours Nurnberg (8-2-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Nurnberg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nurnberg have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Nurnberg is priced at 2.44.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Nurnberg at 42%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts VfL Wolfsburg at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Nurnberg is priced at 2.44. The draw is priced at 3.92. VfL Wolfsburg is priced at 2.44.
Nurnberg have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. VfL Wolfsburg have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Nurnberg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. VfL Wolfsburg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Nurnberg average 3 goals per game this season. Nurnberg average 54% possession. VfL Wolfsburg average 2 goals per game this season. VfL Wolfsburg average 55% possession.
The model gives 78% for both teams to score. The model gives 82% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Nurnberg or VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model rates Nurnberg as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Nurnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Nurnberg wins, 2 draws, 5 VfL Wolfsburg wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17:7 | 18 |
| 2 | Nurnberg | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16:6 | 16 |
| 3 |  1. Heidenheim | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14:12 | 13 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15:8 | 11 |
| 5 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6:4 | 11 |
| 6 |  1. Magdeburg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11:9 | 10 |
| 7 |  Energie Cottbus | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14:13 | 8 |
| 8 |  St. Pauli | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8:8 | 7 |
| 9 |  VfL Bochum | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5:6 | 7 |
| 10 |  Hannover 96 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 11 |  VfL Osnabruck | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9:12 | 7 |
| 12 |  Greuther Furth | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 6 |
| 13 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10:12 | 5 |
| 14 |  Karlsruher | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6:12 | 5 |
| 15 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 12:13 | 4 |
| 16 |  Holstein | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7:10 | 4 |
| 17 |  Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8:14 | 4 |
| 18 |  Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5:13 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.