St. Pauli vs Karlsruher: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
St. Paulivs
KarlsruherThe model puts St. Pauli at 57%. The model leans toward St. Pauli. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours St. Pauli (6-6-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- St. Pauli have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Karlsruher have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Pauli have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- St. Pauli is priced at 1.69.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 17 | 11 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts St. Pauli at 57%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Karlsruher at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward St. Pauli. St. Pauli is priced at 1.69. The draw is priced at 4.2. Karlsruher is priced at 4.165.
St. Pauli have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Karlsruher have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
St. Pauli have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Karlsruher have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
St. Pauli average 1 goals per game this season. St. Pauli average 52% possession. Karlsruher average 1 goals per game this season. Karlsruher average 48% possession.
The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, St. Pauli or Karlsruher?
Our model rates St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for St. Pauli vs Karlsruher?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 St. Pauli wins, 6 draws, 3 Karlsruher wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17:7 | 18 |
| 2 |  Nurnberg | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16:6 | 16 |
| 3 |  1. Heidenheim | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14:12 | 13 |
| 4 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15:8 | 11 |
| 5 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6:4 | 11 |
| 6 |  1. Magdeburg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11:9 | 10 |
| 7 |  Energie Cottbus | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14:13 | 8 |
| 8 | St. Pauli | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8:8 | 7 |
| 9 |  VfL Bochum | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5:6 | 7 |
| 10 |  Hannover 96 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 11 |  VfL Osnabruck | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9:12 | 7 |
| 12 |  Greuther Furth | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 6 |
| 13 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10:12 | 5 |
| 14 | Karlsruher | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6:12 | 5 |
| 15 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 12:13 | 4 |
| 16 |  Holstein | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7:10 | 4 |
| 17 |  Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8:14 | 4 |
| 18 |  Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5:13 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.