Germany. 2. Bundesliga

St. Pauli vs Karlsruher: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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St. Paulivs

Karlsruher

Our predictionSt. Pauli to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts St. Pauli at 57%. The model leans toward St. Pauli. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+The head-to-head record favours St. Pauli (6-6-3).
−St. Pauli are dealing with notable absentees.
+Karlsruher are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · St. Pauli57%

Draw21%

2 · Karlsruher22%

1 · St. PauliDraw2 · Karlsruher

Full team comparison →

Recent form

St. PauliDDWDL

KarlsruherWLLDL

Team strength rating

St. Pauli

Karlsruher

Expected goals

1.53St. Pauli

0.66Karlsruher

Over 2.5 goals37%

Both teams to score38%

Most likely scorelines

1-017.2%

2-013.1%

1-111.3%

0-011.2%

2-18.6%

0-17.4%

Match DNA

St. Pauli Karlsruher

Key points

St. Pauli have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Karlsruher have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
St. Pauli have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
St. Pauli will be without Ando, Pereira Ma., Thordarson.
Karlsruher will be without Wiethaup, Broschinski, Jung S..

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2St. Pauli win1.67Fair (+1.3%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	11	7	2
1	17	11	4
2	13	9	3
3	7	4	1
4	3	2
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2St. Pauli1.67+1.3%

1X2Karlsruher4.36+0.1%

1X2Draw4.15-1.4%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model puts St. Pauli at 57%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Karlsruher at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward St. Pauli. St. Pauli is priced at 1.67. The draw is priced at 4.15. Karlsruher is priced at 4.355.

St. Pauli have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Karlsruher have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.

St. Pauli have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Karlsruher have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

St. Pauli average 1 goals per game this season. St. Pauli average 52% possession. Karlsruher average 1 goals per game this season. Karlsruher average 48% possession.

The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, St. Pauli or Karlsruher?

Our model rates St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for St. Pauli vs Karlsruher?

A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 6 St. Pauli wins, 6 draws, 3 Karlsruher wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

Home 1.22 Draw 5.85 Away 16.00

Match statistics

Player of the matchCeesaySt. Pauli7.5

0.46

Expected goals (xG)

0.07

Possession

Shots on target

Corners

Yellow cards

Shots off target

Offsides

Passes in final third

Fouls

Ceesay⚽32'

34'🟨Tremoulet

St. Pauli

Starting XI

1Voll6.7
4Nemeth D.6.2
7Niang6.4
8Smith E.6.5
9Ceesay7.5
11Pyrka6.7
16Fujita Jo.6.3
20Rasmussen Mat.6.5
21Ritzka6.4
23Oppie6.6
24Metcalfe C.6.8

Unavailable

Ando (Missing Player)
Jansson Ro. (Missing Player)
Mathisen M. (Missing Player)
Pereira Ma. (Missing Player)
Thordarson (Missing Player)

Coach: Marco Rapp

Dynamo Dresden

Starting XI

1Bernat5.1
3Ofli6.4
10Wanitzek6.4
13Fukuda6.3
19Ben Farhat6.1
22Kobald6.4
24Tremoulet7.1
26Zor6.0
28Franke M.6.3
33Bergh V.6.7
36Pinto Pedrosa5.8

Unavailable

Santos H. (Questionable)
Broschinski (Missing Player)

Coach: Maximilian Senft

Match story

How the game unfolded

0–15'0–0

Cautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)

15–45'1–0

St. Pauli make it count (Ceesay (32')). It's 1–0 at this point.

32'⚽Ceesay34'🟨Tremoulet

Half-time

Half-time score: St. Pauli 1 – 0 Dynamo Dresden.

45–75'1–0

The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (1–0)

75–90'+1–0

A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–0)

Full time: St. Pauli 1 – 0 Dynamo Dresden

League table

Germany. 2. Bundesliga

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	6	6	0	0	17:7	18
2	Nurnberg	7	5	0	2	20:10	17
3	1. Heidenheim	7	4	1	2	14:12	14
4	1. Magdeburg	7	4	2	1	14:9	13
5	VfL Wolfsburg	7	3	1	3	19:12	12
6	1. Kaiserslautern	7	3	1	3	6:4	12
7	Energie Cottbus	7	2	3	2	15:16	8
8	VfL Osnabruck	7	2	3	2	10:13	8
9	Eintracht Braunschweig	7	2	4	1	13:13	7
10	St. Pauli	6	1	1	4	8:8	7
11	VfL Bochum	6	2	3	1	5:6	7
12	Hannover 96	7	2	4	1	7:12	7
13	Darmstadt 98	7	2	4	1	8:14	7
14	Greuther Furth	6	1	2	3	9:11	6
15	Arminia Bielefeld	6	1	3	2	10:12	5
16	Dynamo Dresden	7	1	4	2	9:15	5
17	Karlsruher	6	1	3	2	6:12	5
18	Holstein	7	0	3	4	7:11	4