VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
VfL Bochumvs
Arminia BielefeldThe model puts VfL Bochum at 48%. The model leans toward VfL Bochum. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Arminia Bielefeld score more per game (0.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours VfL Bochum (7-5-3).
- +VfL Bochum creates more chances (16 vs 14 shots per game).
- −VfL Bochum are dealing with notable absentees.
- +VfL Bochum controls more of the ball (57% vs 50%).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- VfL Bochum have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arminia Bielefeld have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- VfL Bochum have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- VfL Bochum will be without Cokaj, Drakas, Mbom J., Olsen O., Strompf.
- Arminia Bielefeld will be without Daniel RichterKnee Injury.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24 | 13 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 21 | 11 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts VfL Bochum at 48%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Arminia Bielefeld at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward VfL Bochum. VfL Bochum is priced at 1.99. The draw is priced at 3.62. Arminia Bielefeld is priced at 3.44.
VfL Bochum have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Arminia Bielefeld have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
VfL Bochum have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Arminia Bielefeld have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
VfL Bochum average 0 goals per game this season. VfL Bochum average 57% possession. Arminia Bielefeld average 1 goals per game this season. Arminia Bielefeld average 50% possession.
The model gives 24% for both teams to score. The model gives 17% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, VfL Bochum or Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model rates VfL Bochum as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 VfL Bochum wins, 5 draws, 3 Arminia Bielefeld wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
VfL Bochum
- 1Horn T.
- 2Klaiber
- 5Mets K.
- 7Rasmussen C.
- 15Steinwender M.
- 17Holtmann
- 23Miyoshi
- 24Pannewig
- 32Wittek
- 33Hofmann
- 34Meyer
- Cokaj (Missing Player)
- Drakas (Missing Player)
- Mbom J. (Missing Player)
- Стекерс (Missing Player)
- Strompf (Missing Player)
Arminia Bielefeld
- 1Kersken
- 2Hagmann
- 3Felix Jo.
- 5Bauer Max.
- 11Grodowski
- 17Sicker
- 19Grosser
- 21Russo
- 30Young I.
- 31Jensen L.
- 38Worl
- Daniel RichterKnee Injury (Missing Player)
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
No goals but plenty of bite: 2 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 0–0.
Half-time score: VfL Bochum 0 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–0)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–0)
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17:7 | 18 |
| 2 |  Nurnberg | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 20:10 | 17 |
| 3 |  1. Heidenheim | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14:12 | 14 |
| 4 |  1. Magdeburg | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14:9 | 13 |
| 5 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 19:12 | 12 |
| 6 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6:4 | 12 |
| 7 |  Energie Cottbus | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 15:16 | 8 |
| 8 |  VfL Osnabruck | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10:13 | 8 |
| 9 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13:13 | 7 |
| 10 |  St. Pauli | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8:8 | 7 |
| 11 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5:6 | 7 |
| 12 |  Hannover 96 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7:12 | 7 |
| 13 |  Darmstadt 98 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8:14 | 7 |
| 14 |  Greuther Furth | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 6 |
| 15 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10:12 | 5 |
| 16 |  Dynamo Dresden | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9:15 | 5 |
| 17 |  Karlsruher | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6:12 | 5 |
| 18 |  Holstein | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7:11 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.