VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
VfL Bochumvs
Arminia BielefeldThe model puts VfL Bochum at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Arminia Bielefeld score more per game (0.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours VfL Bochum (7-5-3).
- +VfL Bochum creates more chances (16 vs 14 shots per game).
- +VfL Bochum controls more of the ball (57% vs 50%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- VfL Bochum have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arminia Bielefeld have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- VfL Bochum have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- VfL Bochum is priced at 2.28.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24 | 15 | 4 | |||
| 1 | 20 | 12 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 8 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts VfL Bochum at 43%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Arminia Bielefeld at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. VfL Bochum is priced at 2.28. The draw is priced at 3.58. Arminia Bielefeld is priced at 2.841.
VfL Bochum have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Arminia Bielefeld have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
VfL Bochum have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Arminia Bielefeld have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
VfL Bochum average 0 goals per game this season. VfL Bochum average 57% possession. Arminia Bielefeld average 1 goals per game this season. Arminia Bielefeld average 50% possession.
The model gives 25% for both teams to score. The model gives 17% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, VfL Bochum or Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model rates VfL Bochum as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 VfL Bochum wins, 5 draws, 3 Arminia Bielefeld wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17:7 | 18 |
| 2 |  Nurnberg | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16:6 | 16 |
| 3 |  1. Heidenheim | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14:12 | 13 |
| 4 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15:8 | 11 |
| 5 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6:4 | 11 |
| 6 |  1. Magdeburg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11:9 | 10 |
| 7 |  Energie Cottbus | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14:13 | 8 |
| 8 |  St. Pauli | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8:8 | 7 |
| 9 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5:6 | 7 |
| 10 |  Hannover 96 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 11 |  VfL Osnabruck | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9:12 | 7 |
| 12 |  Greuther Furth | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 6 |
| 13 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10:12 | 5 |
| 14 |  Karlsruher | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6:12 | 5 |
| 15 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 12:13 | 4 |
| 16 |  Holstein | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7:10 | 4 |
| 17 |  Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8:14 | 4 |
| 18 |  Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5:13 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.