Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Galatasarayvs
KasimpasaThe model puts Galatasaray at 78%. The model leans toward Galatasaray. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Galatasaray.
- +Galatasaray score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours Kasimpasa (3-3-9).
- +Galatasaray creates more chances (33 vs 11 shots per game).
- +Galatasaray controls more of the ball (64% vs 38%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Galatasaray have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Kasimpasa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Galatasaray have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Galatasaray is priced at 1.216.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 13 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 14 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 9 | 4 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Galatasaray at 78%. The model puts the draw at 12%. The model puts Kasimpasa at 10%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Galatasaray. Galatasaray is priced at 1.216. The draw is priced at 6.8. Kasimpasa is priced at 11.5.
Galatasaray have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Kasimpasa have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Galatasaray have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Kasimpasa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Galatasaray average 2 goals per game this season. Galatasaray average 64% possession. Kasimpasa average 1 goals per game this season. Kasimpasa average 38% possession.
The model gives 33% for both teams to score. The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Galatasaray or Kasimpasa?
Our model rates Galatasaray as the most likely outcome at 78% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Galatasaray vs Kasimpasa?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Galatasaray wins, 3 draws, 9 Kasimpasa wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Turkey. SuperLiga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Amedspor | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15:7 | 13 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13:10 | 13 |
| 3 |  Besiktas | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14:7 | 12 |
| 4 |  Kocaelispor | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7:4 | 12 |
| 5 |  Alanyaspor | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:6 | 11 |
| 6 |  Fenerbahce | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16:6 | 10 |
| 7 |  Trabzonspor | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13:5 | 10 |
| 8 | Kasimpasa | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7:5 | 10 |
| 9 |  Caykur Rizespor | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7:6 | 10 |
| 10 |  Gaziantep | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:7 | 8 |
| 11 |  Arca Corum | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13:12 | 7 |
| 12 |  Istanbul BFK | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10:11 | 7 |
| 13 |  Genclerbirligi | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5:13 | 7 |
| 14 |  BB Erzurumspor | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3:11 | 7 |
| 15 |  Konyaspor | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:8 | 4 |
| 16 |  Samsunspor | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:12 | 4 |
| 17 |  Goztepe | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 11:15 | 3 |
| 18 |  Eyupspor | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2:16 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.