Wingate & Finchley vs Hemel Hempstead Town: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Wingate & Finchleyvs
Hemel Hempstead TownThe model puts Hemel Hempstead Town at 57%. The model leans toward Hemel Hempstead Town. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Wingate & Finchley (3-2-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Wingate & Finchley have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hemel Hempstead Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Wingate & Finchley have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Hemel Hempstead Town is priced at 1.55.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Wingate & Finchley at 22%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Hemel Hempstead Town at 57%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Hemel Hempstead Town. Wingate & Finchley is priced at 4.685. The draw is priced at 4.05. Hemel Hempstead Town is priced at 1.55.
Wingate & Finchley have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Wingate & Finchley have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Hemel Hempstead Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Wingate & Finchley or Hemel Hempstead Town?
Our model rates Hemel Hempstead Town as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Wingate & Finchley vs Hemel Hempstead Town?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 3 Wingate & Finchley wins, 2 draws, 0 Hemel Hempstead Town wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.