Machida Zelvia vs Tochigi City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Machida Zelviavs
Tochigi CityThe model puts Machida Zelvia at 69%. The model leans toward Machida Zelvia. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Machida Zelvia (3-0-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Machida Zelvia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tochigi City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Machida Zelvia have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Machida Zelvia is priced at 1.36.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Machida Zelvia at 69%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Tochigi City at 13%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Machida Zelvia. Machida Zelvia is priced at 1.36. The draw is priced at 4.9. Tochigi City is priced at 7.16.
Machida Zelvia have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Tochigi City have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Machida Zelvia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Tochigi City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 37% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Machida Zelvia or Tochigi City?
Our model rates Machida Zelvia as the most likely outcome at 69% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Machida Zelvia vs Tochigi City?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 3 Machida Zelvia wins, 0 draws, 1 Tochigi City wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.