CONCACAF Nations League

Bahamas vs Saint Martin: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Bahamasvs

Saint Martin

Our predictionSaint Martin to win

Model score: Medium · 50/100

Score hint: 0-2

The model puts Saint Martin at 75%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: medium.

Win probabilities

1 · Bahamas10%

Draw15%

2 · Saint Martin75%

1 · BahamasDraw2 · Saint Martin

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.01+22.1%

1X2Bahamas9.700.0%

1X2Draw6.100.0%

1X2Saint Martin1.230.0%

BTTSYes1.72-22.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Bahamas

Saint Martin

Most likely scorelines

0-217.2%

0-116.0%

0-312.4%

1-27.7%

0-07.4%

1-17.1%

Expected goals

0.45Bahamas

2.15Saint Martin

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score32%

Match DNA

Bahamas Saint Martin

Key points

Saint Martin is priced at 1.23.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Saint Martin win1.23Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	16	17	12	7	3
1	3	7	8	6	3	1
2		2	2	1
3
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Bahamas at 10%. The model puts the draw at 15%. The model puts Saint Martin at 75%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.

The market leans toward Saint Martin. Bahamas is priced at 9.7. The draw is priced at 6.1. Saint Martin is priced at 1.23.

The model gives 32% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →