Aruba vs Antigua And Barbuda: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Arubavs
Antigua And BarbudaThe model puts Antigua And Barbuda at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Aruba.
- −The head-to-head record favours Aruba (5-1-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Aruba have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Antigua And Barbuda have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Aruba have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Antigua And Barbuda is priced at 2.03.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Aruba at 33%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Antigua And Barbuda at 43%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Antigua And Barbuda. Aruba is priced at 3.255. The draw is priced at 3.58. Antigua And Barbuda is priced at 2.03.
Aruba have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Aruba have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Antigua And Barbuda have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Aruba or Antigua And Barbuda?
Our model rates Antigua And Barbuda as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Aruba vs Antigua And Barbuda?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 Aruba wins, 1 draws, 0 Antigua And Barbuda wins.
Odds movement
League table
CONCACAF Nations League. League C| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  British Virgin Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Montserrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Turks and Caicos Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.