Al Jaish Baghdad vs Masafi Al-Shamal: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Al Jaish Baghdadvs
Masafi Al-ShamalThe model puts Al Jaish Baghdad at 55%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Al Jaish Baghdad is priced at 1.67.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 16 | 11 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Al Jaish Baghdad at 55%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Masafi Al-Shamal at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Al Jaish Baghdad. Al Jaish Baghdad is priced at 1.67. The draw is priced at 3.8. Masafi Al-Shamal is priced at 4.34.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 41% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Al Jaish Baghdad or Masafi Al-Shamal?
Our model rates Al Jaish Baghdad as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Al Jaish Baghdad vs Masafi Al-Shamal?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.